Telecommunication Rush
There was gold rush in 18th century where thousand of people made a massive exodus from east coast of US to the western part which later well known as the city San Francisco. All kind of human being, European Immigrant, Chinese, priest, and prostitutes took part in this rush.
Nowadays, telecommunication sectors can be considered as a gold mine since literally some of its consultants can be paid as much as 1 kg of gold bar a month or even more. I even can keep some grams when ‘hunting’ it in Africa. That is why no wonder if European and Chinese vendor competing to sell their equipments. Malaysian and British operator workers make a deal in a hotel close to Jakarta harbor after a ‘relaxing massage’ by Russian or Uzbek lady, and in the meantime a famous priest is preparing a religious SMS content to be uploaded shortly. So many parties involved in the telecommunication rush.
In Indonesia, which technological infrastructure maturity is in doubt, telecommunication is considered as main driver of economy due to a very strong consumer spending. If there was a say by IBM that in the year 2000 should be 1 house 1 PC now even doubled in telco since 1 person can have 2 or more cell phone. People are willing to even cut more essential need such as food as long as they have some airtime credit in their cell phone.
However, this is not yet an indication of saturated market since vast network expansion opportunity is still possible to be projected. Telkom Group, as the largest telecommunication provider, only covers less than half of Indonesian population by its PSTN and cellular network which service is done by its subsidiary Telkomsel. Even after take Indosat, XL, and other smaller telecommunication operators, there still tenth of million potential subscriber and huge uncovered blank spots area throughout Indonesian archipelago.
Although there was a 23.4% profit drop booked by Telkom Group, but this is only small correction to balance rapid growing of this industry. Most of operators are now still busy digging their gold ore in a rushing speed off course. Therefore, vendors and subcontractor can maintain their profitable project that derived from telecommunication operator order.
Due to fierce competition, however, some small operators cannot bear to stand and grow weaker especially those who brought CDMA as their platform. As also happened around the globe, despite its spectral efficiency, CDMA technology is likely hard to survive. Only Bakrie Telecom and Telkom Flexi can grab telecommunication market to provide second cell phone of GSM cell phone customer. Sampoerna Telecom, Sinar Mas (Smart), and Mobile-8 are struggling hard to stay away from bankruptcy.
Beyond this voice mobile phone trend, expert always say that data communication will take over voice, but is it really to be happen in near future? I think people still reluctant to move from voice based communication method into purely data communication. Current 3G network expansion progress, which provide so many extended data service compared to second generation digital communication, is in a very slow pace. Operators also seems not very serious in providing data communication through its 3G network although Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for 3G is higher than 2G. Hence, broadband wireless access (BWA) such as WiMax or LTE seems still a light years away from wiping out current telecommunication environment. Therefore, now telecommunication and IT worker are still digging in separated field of gold.
Speaking about gold, I remember there was a story tale character named Midas who can touch everything he wishes into gold. I think Midas was live into real somewhere in Nordic countries around 1990’s and bring his magical power into telecommunication and turn it into gold. On the other hand, in this decade, Chinese and Indian has also some magical power that turn those gold into some less precious stone and ore. They do de-Midas-ization. They can cut down almost all aspect in telecommunication industry from equipment, service, to manpower. Chinese is threatening all European telecommunication vendors so that even some are now already passed away such as Nortel and maybe the next one is Motorola. India can provide and enforce cheap manpower for telecommunication sector. Indian also now already considered as IT powerhouse.
Will the telecommunication rush era over? I hope there is another Midas born to change all back into gold. The BWA especially WiMax development is already deeply considered by government to have as much as local content in its technology compared to LTE solution which mostly developed by legacy vendors. By using more and more local content, I think Indonesian telecommunication sector can still be a rich field of gold due to its expansion potential.
Tags: BWA, Gold Rush, indonesia, Telecommunication, WiMax
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